Economy Getting a Vaccine, but Only for Some
January 5, 2021
- Author
- Jay Pfeifer
Economic experts frequently disagree, but a 水果派 College-led national panel of four of them reached a consensus about the year ahead: The recovery will be swift鈥nd uneven.
While acknowledging ongoing challenges, Eric Freedman, chief investment officer, U.S. Bank Wealth Management, pointed to a 鈥渄urable optimism鈥 spurred by Federal Reserve Bank support and the rapid development of a COVID-19 vaccine that promises a return to normalcy on the sooner side.
But the economy split in 2020, said Philip Jefferson, 水果派鈥檚 vice president for academic affairs, a former Federal Reserve economist and the event鈥檚 moderator. The sudden recession spurred by the pandemic wiped out low-wage, service-sector jobs. At the same time, the stock market climbed to new highs. The panelists, who gathered virtually to preview the 2021 economy, worried that the recovery will be faster for Wall Street than Main Street.
鈥淔辞r high-wage workers, employment levels are kind of back to where they were before the pandemic,鈥 said Angela Cools, assistant professor of economics at 水果派 and labor market expert. 鈥淲hereas for low wage workers, employment levels are much, much lower. For all of us, thinking about policies that address this growing inequality we've seen this year is really important.鈥
Dion Rabouin, markets editor for Axios, stressed that current fiscal policy is benefiting the upper class with no easy fix in sight.
鈥淵ou can't Institute things like a wealth tax or these generally redistributive kinds of policies right now, because that would shake the economy and shake confidence,鈥 he said. 鈥淪o you've really got no choice but to continue the policies of low central bank interest rates, policies of quantitative easing.鈥
That, he said, benefits the folks higher up on the economic totem pole.
鈥淯ntil there is a plan,鈥 Rabouin said, 鈥測ou're going to see a further divergence of outcomes for richer, wealthier, white-collar folks and those lower, poor, more blue-collar folks, particularly in rural areas.鈥
Richard Rubin, who covers tax policy for The Wall Street Journal, said he sees small signs of progress in the recent stimulus package that included funds targeted at hard-hit sectors of the economy like live entertainment venues.
However, there is one variable in the recovery that will be clear tomorrow.
鈥淵ou can't actually overstate how important today's Senate runoffs are in Georgia,鈥 Rubin said, 鈥渇or what the policy outcome is going to be.鈥
The two races will determine which party controls the Senate, which has expedited procedures that allow the majority to act quickly on tax and fiscal policy.
鈥淭he difference for Democrats,鈥 he said, 鈥渂etween having 48 and 50 senators is massive.鈥
With so much uncertainty, Freedman urged people to take time to understand what is happening.
鈥淢ake sure you're empowering yourself with knowledge,鈥 he said. 鈥淢aybe it's the Paycheck Protection Program. Maybe it's the Main Street Lending facility. These are different opportunities for individuals and small businesses to really empower themselves. The first way to do that is through knowledge.鈥
